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A disturbance is developing in the Gulf of Mexico. What the forecast shows.

gulf of mexico disturbance

A disturbance began to develop Friday just offshore of southeastern Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said.

The system, described as a surface trough of low pressure, has a low 10% chance of formation in the next two to five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Gulf of Mexico Map

“Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple of days as it drifts west-southwestward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,” the hurricane center said in its 8 a.m. advisory. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend.”

“We’re watching the northern Gulf as a frontal boundary sweeps that way. Plenty of mid-level spin and moisture are being observed,” meteorologist Zach Covey of CBS12 in West Palm Beach said on Twitter. “If that spin can generate a low, it’s possible we get a quick tropical depression before it moves into Texas late weekend.”

NOAA’s recently revised prediction says there could be 11 to 17 named storms before the Atlantic’s 2022 hurricane season ends on Nov. 30. The next name on the storm list is Danielle.

Related News: MarketWatch: U.S. oil prices settle lower, holding below $100 on signs of a demand slowdown

What is a Hurricane? From National Ocean Service

A tropical cyclone is a rotating low-pressure weather system that has organized thunderstorms but no fronts (a boundary separating two air masses of different densities). Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 39 miles per hour (mph) are called tropical depressions. Those with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or higher are called tropical storms.

When a storm’s maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, it is called a hurricane. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating, or category, based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained winds. The higher the category, the greater the hurricane’s potential for property damage.

Hurricanes originate in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern North Pacific Ocean, and, less frequently, the central North Pacific Ocean. A six-year rotating list of names, updated and maintained by the World Meteorological Organization, is used to identify these storms.

“Hurricane Season” begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, although hurricanes can, and have, occurred outside of this time frame. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center predicts and tracks these massive storm systems, which occur, on average, 12 times a year in the Atlantic basin.


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