All regions of the North America electric grid are expected to have sufficient resources under normal operating and weather conditions this summer, but some may face supply shortfall risks during periods of extreme heat, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. said Wednesday in its annual 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment.
By Laila Kearney | (Reuters) -The middle section of the U.S. and Canada could have a shortfall of electricity this summer if higher-than-normal North America forecasted temperatures drive up demand as a changing mix of power supplies increases reliability risks, the organization overseeing the area’s electric grid said on Wednesday.
The North American Electricity Reliability Corporation said electricity demand in the United States and Canada has grown by 10 gigawatts since last summer, doubling the previous year’s increase, as fossil-fired power supplies retire and solar power additions surge.
At the same time electricity consumption rises from data centers, manufacturing and the electrification of industries like transportation, the sources of power generation on the North American electrical grid are shifting from around-the-clock power plants like coal and nuclear to intermittent supply from renewables, like solar and wind.
That change has presented new challenges for electric grid reliability during the summer months, according to NERC, when the use of energy-guzzling air conditioning systems threatens to drain grid resources and cause power shortfalls.
ERCOT, which controls the Texas grid, will be tested in the early evening hours, when demand increases but solar power output wanes.
“When the sun goes down, that late early evening time period, that’s when there’s potential to fall short,” NERC’s John Moura during NERC’s annual Summer Reliability Assessment news conference call.
Low wind power generation could throw off the supply and demand balance in the Southwest Power Pool, which covers states including Montana, New Mexico, and Nebraska. Meanwhile, major Midwestern grid operator MISO is expected to have less supply than last year, as 1,575 megawatts of natural gas and coal-fired generation have been retired since last summer.
The outlier region, New England, is also at elevated risk of shortfalls.
More than 7 gigawatts of fossil-fired power generation, including coal and natural gas, is expected to have retired in North America since last summer. At the same time as those around-the-clock power supplies retire, about 30 gigawatts of installed solar capacity, along with 13 gigawatts of battery storage capacity, has been added on the continent over the last year, NERC said in its report.
Moura, who leads NERC’s reliability assessment and system analysis, said the U.S. and Canada will need to add new transmission lines and power supplies to keep up with demand and rising temperatures and avoid shortfalls in the summer months.
“As demand grows, we’ve got to build infrastructure,” Moura said.
(Reporting by Laila Kearney; Editing by Aurora Ellis)
