OPEC+’s production hikes have been a tool to both punish countries that were overproducing oil and to lower prices in an effort to regain market share from U.S. shale drillers. For now, the gap between quota headlines and physical flows is as wide as ever.
From MarketWatch: OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to increase crude production in November by another 137,000 barrels a day, despite rising concerns of a global glut.
The group of major oil-producing countries has been announcing monthly production increases since April, boosting output by a total of about 2.5 million barrels a day through September.
Before the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia had opposing views, according to reports by Reuters and Bloomberg News. According to those reports, Russia had sought a modest output increase, while Saudi Arabia sought a significantly larger boost — up to quadrupling production. The Saudis apparently backed down, as the more modest hike agreed upon was the same as October’s hike.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose on Friday. Still, it ended the week down 7.4% for its worst week since June, amid expectations for a global surplus of crude over the next year or so. The global benchmark, December Brent, declined slightly on Friday but posted a weekly loss of 6.8%.
Forecasts from the International Energy Agency indicate that global oil supplies are expected to surpass global demand in 2025 and 2026.
OPEC+’s production hikes have been a tool to both punish countries that were overproducing oil and to lower prices in an effort to regain market share from U.S. shale drillers.
OPEC+ cited “steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” in again raising their output, according to Sunday’s statement.
Still, the moves by OPEC+ sound “more like market theater than supply policy,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a note Sunday. Innes noted that while monthly production quotas have increased, actual production has lagged behind those numbers, as OPEC+ remains “unwilling to flood the market and crater prices.”
Traders “still have to price the illusion,” Innes said, “and prices whip around in a tug-of-war between expectation and evidence.”
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