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• Lower oil prices on the horizon, Morgan Stanley predicts
  Morgan Stanley has revised its Brent crude price forecasts down...
  Morgan Stanley has revised its Brent crude price forecasts down to $75 per barrel in the third quarter and $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter and sees prices trading in the $70-$80 per barrel range in 2024. The bank expects the market to shift to a surplus in the first half of next year, as non-OPEC supply increases could outpace demand growth.
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• Energy Sector Commentary for Friday
  Energy stocks remain under pressure,...

  Energy stocks remain under pressure, tracking weaker broader index futures and recent downward trends amid expectations of further Fed tightening.  Nonfarm payrolls for June increased 209,000, while the unemployment rate was 3.6%, the Labor Department reported this morning.  The figure missed expectations of +240,000.  Futures erased some losses on this news, which offers some dovish readthroughs for the Fed, though hike expectations remain the likely outcome for at least the next meeting.  Sector news flow is light.

  
  

  Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for their second straight weekly gain, as resilient demand resulted in a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. oil stockpiles, offsetting fears of higher U.S. interest rates.  U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected and gasoline inventories posted a large draw, the EIA said on Thursday. Top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia this week have also announced fresh output cuts bringing total cuts by OPEC and its allies to around five million bpd, equating to 5% of global oil demand.

  
  

  Natural gas futures are higher by a penny, inching higher alongside oil prices

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• Plant outages, demand shifts push US LNG exports lower
  Preliminary data from Refinitiv Eikon show that US liquefied natural gas exports decreased by 10% to...
  Preliminary data from Refinitiv Eikon show that US liquefied natural gas exports decreased by 10% to 7.51 million short tons in June due to plant maintenance and lower European demand. Europe's share of US LNG shipments declined from 60% in May to 47% in June, while Asia and Latin America accounted for 27% and 17% of the total, respectively.
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• Prigozhin Returns to Russia
  Supporters of...
  Supporters of the private Russian mercenary Wagner Group are calling for a mass gathering Saturday in St. Petersburg, Russia, where groups plan to hand out Wagner-branded merchandise. The private mercenary group announced the effort on its social media channel yesterday to roughly 250,000 followers as reports surfaced of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's return to Russia. 
  
  The latest development comes less than two weeks after Prigozhin and members of the Wagner Group were exiled to neighboring Belarus after a short-lived mutiny against Russia's defense ministry (see timeline). A brokered deal allowed Wagner mercenaries to relocate to Belarus to avoid joining the Russian military as part of Moscow's plan to dismantle private mercenary groups. 
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• Mortgage rates jumped to an 8-month high
  The rise Thursday came after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell predicted that inflation would remain...
  The rise Thursday came after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell predicted that inflation would remain above 2% until at least 2025, meaning the Fed would probably have to keep its benchmark rate higher for longer.
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