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Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned that tariffs will soon drive up U.S. inflation, with consumers bearing much of the cost, according to minutes from the July meeting. While initial tariff hikes have not caused a sharp rise in prices, Fed contacts report that businesses will be forced to pass higher costs along to customers. A majority of Fed officials see upside inflation risk as the greater challenge compared to labor market weakness, though a few worry tariff-driven supply chain disruptions could keep inflation elevated.
The minutes revealed limited support for an immediate rate cut, despite dissent from two officials who favored easing. However, the picture shifted quickly after July employment data showed an unexpectedly weak labor market, with downward revisions to job growth and slowing momentum. The surprise data, which prompted President Trump to remove the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, increased speculation that more Fed members may adopt a balanced risk outlook. Markets are now pricing in higher odds of a September rate cut. Attention is turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole, where his tone will signal whether the Fed intends to resist or align with market expectations for near-term monetary easing.
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