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Iran’s ability to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is a key question for investors. But it isn’t the only concern when it comes to flows of crude and other energy products out of the Middle East.
The potential for Iran to shut down shipping routes, particularly the strait, through which ships carrying roughly 20 million barrels a day of oil and oil products and 20% of the world’s liquefied-natural-gas supply, has long served as a boogeyman for investors, oil traders, shippers and world leaders. Now that threat is front and center following President Donald Trump’s decision to involve the U.S. directly in the Israel-Iran war Saturday by bombing Iranian nuclear sites.
“My initial take is that while odds of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain below 50%, they are clearly higher than they were on Friday,” Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth in New York, told MarketWatch.
“If the Strait of Hormuz became non-navigable, it would constitute pretty much an unprecedented negative supply shock for the energy markets, at least in recent history,” said Minna Kuusisto, chief analyst at Danske Bank in Copenhagen, in a Sunday note.
U.S. stocks saw a mixed finish Friday, with the S&P 500 posting a small weekly decline, as investors tracked developments around the Iran-Israel conflict and the potential for direct U.S. involvement.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished with a gain of around 35 points, or 0.1%, near 42,207, according to preliminary data, leaving the blue-chip index marginally positive on the week.
The S&P 500 shed around 13 points, or 0.2%, to end near 5,968, for a weekly fall of 0.2%.
The Nasdaq Composite lost around 99 points, or 0.5%, to finish near 19,447, up 0.2% on the week.
U.S. markets were closed Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday, while so-called triple-witching — the simultaneous expiration of individual stock options, index-futures options and futures contracts — failed to produce a volatility spike in Friday's session.
The White House on Thursday said President Donald Trump would decide in two weeks whether to directly strike Iran. Oil futures pulled back, helping to calm fears around a potential energy price shock. However, strategists noted that investors are unlikely to shake those concerns as long as the Israel-Iran conflict continues.
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