Energy stocks opened just above breakeven levels, tracking higher broader market futures, which erased premarket losses and shifted into the green following tame January PCE data. Inflation rose 0.4% in January, which was in-line with expectations, and +2.8% from a year ago. While still positive, markets were primed for weakness if the inflation figures rose anywhere above market expectations. Risk sentiment should be positive today. Meanwhile, earnings continue to wrap up across the energy sector.
Oil prices were mixed, with WTI slightly positive and Brent around the flatline following the in-line PCE report. Brent has hovered comfortably above the $80 mark for three weeks, with the Middle East conflict having only a modest impact on crude flows. A Reuters survey of 40 economists and analysts on Thursday forecast an average price of $81.13 a barrel for the front-month contract this year.
Natural gas futures are down about 3 cents ahead of weekly inventory, in which analysts expect a draw of 88 bcf.
Today is leap day, Feb. 29, a date observed only once roughly every four years in the international standard Gregorian calendar. While the extra day serves a technical function, its uniqueness prompts celebrations around the world—especially by the estimated 5 million Leaplings born on this rare day.
Leap years are necessary because the Earth takes slightly longer than 365 days to revolve around the sun—roughly five hours and 48 minutes more (see explainer). For millennia, agricultural societies using a solar calendar to schedule plantings and harvests saw the seasons drift over time and instituted the extra day to compensate. The Romans made the current leap year approach official under Julius Caesar, but that calendar was overhauled 1,500 years later by Pope Gregory XIII because the seasons had drifted off by roughly 10 days. Learn how this prompted the disappearance of 10 days in 1582 here.
In contrast, China's cultural calendar utilizes a leap month every three years. Learn how other non-Gregorian cultures approach leap years here.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) issued a disaster declaration this week for 60 counties as the Smokehouse Creek Fire became the second-largest in Texas history. Thousands of people were ordered to evacuate as the wildfire remains 3% contained and other wildfires burned, leaving at least one person dead (see updates).
The Smokehouse Creek Fire broke out Monday and is one of multiple wildfires burning across Texas and into Oklahoma. As of this writing, it has grown to over 1,300 square miles (850,000 acres), larger than the state of Rhode Island, and has threatened homes, businesses, and farms. Wildfires have also caused the country’s main nuclear weapons assembly facility to temporarily shut down.
The death toll in Gaza passed a somber milestone on Thursday as the local health ministry reported that more than 30,000 people had been killed in the war since Oct. 7.
The number of deaths since Israel launched its military offensive against Hamas in Gaza had already surpassed the tolls of any previous Arab conflict with Israel when it rose above 20,000 in December. Many experts say the official toll is very likely an undercount, given the difficulty of accurately tallying deaths amid unrelenting fighting, communications disruptions, a collapsing medical system and people still believed to be under the rubble.
The numbers: Initial jobless benefit claims rose by...
The numbers: Initial jobless benefit claims rose by 13,000 to 215,000 in the week ended Feb. 24, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated new claims would rise to 210,000.
Key details: The number of Americans already collecting jobless benefits in the week ended Feb. 17 rose by 45,000 to 1.91 million.
Big picture: Claims have been bouncing around low levels. Economists detect some softening in the labor market and don’t expect claims to remain so low in the coming weeks. Stepping back, the data suggests continued solid economic growth and stable unemployment.
