Oil traders and global investors await Iran’s response to U.S. strike
Iran’s ability to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the...
Iran’s ability to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is a key question for investors. But it isn’t the only concern when it comes to flows of crude and other energy products out of the Middle East.
The potential for Iran to shut down shipping routes, particularly the strait, through which ships carrying roughly 20 million barrels a day of oil and oil products and 20% of the world’s liquefied-natural-gas supply, has long served as a boogeyman for investors, oil traders, shippers and world leaders. Now that threat is front and center following President Donald Trump’s decision to involve the U.S. directly in the Israel-Iran war Saturday by bombing Iranian nuclear sites.
“My initial take is that while odds of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain below 50%, they are clearly higher than they were on Friday,” Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth in New York, told MarketWatch.
“If the Strait of Hormuz became non-navigable, it would constitute pretty much an unprecedented negative supply shock for the energy markets, at least in recent history,” said Minna Kuusisto, chief analyst at Danske Bank in Copenhagen, in a Sunday note.
Fed official says rate cuts could come as soon as July
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller ...
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Wallersaid in a CNBC interview yesterday that he and his colleagues should consider slashing interest rates “as early as July” because he doesn’t believe tariffs will significantly drive up inflation. These remarks came after he and other Fed governors voted to keep rates unchanged this week. President Trump has criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for refusing to lower them, but with Waller’s comments, the call is now coming from inside the house. Waller noted that he wasn’t speaking for the whole committee that decides, but said it was time to start thinking about a cut to avoid harming the labor market. That presents a stark contrast to the cautious tone Powell struck in a press conference earlier this week, reiterating the Fed’s wait-and-see stance and expressing concerns that tariffs could still drive up prices.
No breakthroughs in Europe’s talks with Iran. European...
No breakthroughs in Europe’s talks with Iran. European and Iranian negotiators met in Geneva yesterday in hopes of hashing out an agreement to deescalate Iran’s conflict with Israel over Iran’s nuclear program—which President Trump said Thursday he’d decide whether to join within two weeks to give diplomacy a chance first. But they failed to come to an agreement as Iran reportedly insisted it be allowed to continue enriching uranium. Despite ending at an impasse, the negotiations left open the possibility of more talks going forward. Meanwhile, Israel’s military chief warned the public to prepare for a “prolonged” campaign in Iran.
An appeals court ruled that the president had the power to send National Guard troops to Los Angeles without going through California’s governor.
The Supreme Court refused to fast-track a case brought by toy companies challenging President Trump’s tariffs. Separately, the high court upheld a law that allows American victims of terrorism in Israel and their families to sue the Palestinian Authority and Palestine Liberation Organization.
TikTok received another 90-day extension of the deadline to sell the company or face a federal ban, so your FYP remains safe for now.
President Trump says he’s near a “‘mindbogglingly’ HISTORIC” settlement that could end his feud with Harvard.
Telegram founder Pavel Durov said he will leave his fortune to all his children. That may sound pretty standard, but Durov has over 100 of them, most of whom he fathered through sperm donation.
Dow ekes out gain, but S&P 500 sees weekly loss as Iran worries hang over market
U.S. stocks saw a mixed finish Friday, with the S&P...
U.S. stocks saw a mixed finish Friday, with the S&P 500 posting a small weekly decline, as investors tracked developments around the Iran-Israel conflict and the potential for direct U.S. involvement.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished with a gain of around 35 points, or 0.1%, near 42,207, according to preliminary data, leaving the blue-chip index marginally positive on the week.
The S&P 500 shed around 13 points, or 0.2%, to end near 5,968, for a weekly fall of 0.2%.
The Nasdaq Composite lost around 99 points, or 0.5%, to finish near 19,447, up 0.2% on the week.
U.S. markets were closed Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday, while so-called triple-witching — the simultaneous expiration of individual stock options, index-futures options and futures contracts — failed to produce a volatility spike in Friday's session.
The White House on Thursday said President Donald Trump would decide in two weeks whether to directly strike Iran. Oil futures pulled back, helping to calm fears around a potential energy price shock. However, strategists noted that investors are unlikely to shake those concerns as long as the Israel-Iran conflict continues.
Working natural gas in storage slowed its rise in the U.S. for the week...
Working natural gas in storage slowed its rise in the U.S. for the week ending June 13, resulting in a strong day on the Henry Hub for the commodity.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report, U.S. stocks of working gas in the Lower 48 rose by 95 Bcf for the week—the first time in seven weeks the level did not increase by more than 100 Bcf. (The EIA released its report one day early because of the Juneteenth federal holiday.)
The deceleration, coupled with rising demand and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, led to a bullish day on the market, according to a report from Natural Gas Intelligence.
Henry Hub front-month futures prices hit $4.08/MMBtu at 7:12 a.m. Central Time on June 20.
Since June 11, natural gas prices have trended upward as summer heat sets in.
According to EIA estimates, working gas in storage was 2.8 Tcf as of June 13. Stocks were 233 Bcf less than in the same period last year.
