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Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned that tariffs will soon drive up U.S. inflation, with consumers bearing much of the cost, according to minutes from the July meeting. While initial tariff hikes have not caused a sharp rise in prices, Fed contacts report that businesses will be forced to pass higher costs along to customers. A majority of Fed officials see upside inflation risk as the greater challenge compared to labor market weakness, though a few worry tariff-driven supply chain disruptions could keep inflation elevated.
The minutes revealed limited support for an immediate rate cut, despite dissent from two officials who favored easing. However, the picture shifted quickly after July employment data showed an unexpectedly weak labor market, with downward revisions to job growth and slowing momentum. The surprise data, which prompted President Trump to remove the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, increased speculation that more Fed members may adopt a balanced risk outlook. Markets are now pricing in higher odds of a September rate cut. Attention is turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole, where his tone will signal whether the Fed intends to resist or align with market expectations for near-term monetary easing.
Stocks finished mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average securing a back-to-back gain and the S&P 500 dropping for a fourth consecutive day, after the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting minutes revealed concerns about near-term tariff-driven inflation.
Meanwhile, investors rotated out of big-name technology companies — putting the Nasdaq Composite on track for its worst two-day performance in months during much of Wednesday's session.
“The Fed is worried about inflation accelerating as companies pass tariffs on to consumers," said David Russell, global head of market strategy for the online trading platform TradeStation.
"Several policymakers also see risk of higher prices getting entrenched because inflation has been above the Fed’s target for so long. ... The bulls might get some cold water splashed in their faces at Jackson Hole,” he added in an email, referring to the central bank's annual symposium in Wyoming being held this week.
The Dow rose 16.04 points, or less than 0.1%, to finish at 44,938.31 after choppy trading, based on preliminary data.
The S&P 500 fell 15.59 points, or 0.2%, to end at 6,395.78 for a fourth straight session of declines.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 142.10 points, or 0.7%, to close at 21,172.86.
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