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U.S. crude oil prices climbed over 2% on Tuesday, retreating from higher levels as markets evaluated the potential for escalation following Iran's missile attack on Israel. The response highlighted a shift from previous market complacency about the conflict, with traders who had largely dismissed supply disruption threats now reassessing risks.
The key concern centers on Israel's potential response, particularly whether it might target Iran's nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure. With Iranian oil production at a five-year high of over 3 million barrels per day, analysts emphasize the need to consider scenarios where these supplies could be disrupted, marking a significant shift in market risk assessment.
Wall Street tumbled Tuesday in a tech-driven sell-off, buffeted by Iran's missile attack on Israel and a U.S. East Coast port workers' strike. The market's reaction reflected a complex landscape where defense and energy stocks rose amid Middle East tensions, while shipping-related and retail shares declined due to port closures. Safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, gold, and Treasuries gained traction, with oil prices initially surging 5% before moderating later in the session.
Despite attempts to recover from midday lows, similar to Monday's late rebound, buying enthusiasm remained subdued as volatility reached nearly one-month highs. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below Monday's levels, narrowing the yield curve that had been widening since the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut. This shift was driven by both the flight to safety and weak U.S. manufacturing data, highlighting investors' growing concerns about potential economic impacts, including possible goods inflation and supply chain disruptions affecting retailers, railroads, and auto companies.
Here's where the major benchmarks ended:
Source: EIA | Between 2020 and 2024, total crude oil and lease condensate production...
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