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U.S. productivity decreased at a 0.8% annual rate in the first quarter, the government said Thursday. That’s the first decline since the second quarter of 2022.
Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had projected a 0.7% decrease. Over the past four quarters, U.S. productivity has increased at a 1.4% pace, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2023.
Unit-labor costs, a key measure of wages, jumped 5.7% in the first quarter, up from 2.0% in the fourth quarter.
🔴 Negative for inflation outlook: Rising labor costs and falling productivity raise inflation risks.
🔴 Potential market impact: Could push bond yields higher as traders reassess interest rate cuts.
🔴 Federal Reserve implication: Makes the Fed’s job harder—slower growth but still sticky inflation.
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