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OPEC+ stunned the oil market last month with a 411K bbl/day May production hike that was triple the amount originally planned. The cartel is apparently trying to discipline over-producing members such as Kazakhstan by driving down prices, and Bloomberg reported that it is considering doing the same again next month.
Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to announce a 410K bbl/day supply increase for June, citing modest compliance from Kazakhstan, lower-than-expected OECD inventories, and Saudi Arabia's ability to handle lower oil prices.
The bank also maintained its oil price forecast, expecting Brent crude to average $63/bbl and WTI crude at $59/bbl for the rest of 2025, with prices sliding further in 2026 to $58 for Brent and $55 for WTI, and that a global slowdown or a complete reversal of the 2.2M bbl/day of voluntary OPEC+ cuts could push Brent prices into the $40s next year.
The U.S. stock market ended sharply higher Friday, with the S&P 500’s rally erasing its losses after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on April 2.
The S&P 500 climbed 82.53 points on Friday, or 1.5%, to close at 5,686.67.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 564.47 points, or 1.4%, to finish at 41,317.43.
The Nasdaq Composite jumped 266.99 points, or 1.5%, to end at 17,977.73
The labor market has been a bright spot, with a pace of job growth remaining healthy even as the economy has lost momentum in the last three months. Economists expect the job market to soften given all the uncertainty over tariffs, but, in general, they think April might be too soon to see a significant weakening. Which sectors show strength and weakness will matter more this month than usual.
U.S. economy adds 177,000 jobs in April, above 133,000 forecast. U.S. unemployment rate stays the same in April at 4.2%.
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˃ Financing from the six largest Wall Street banks for oil, gas, and coal...
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