Amid rising global tensions following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, former President Donald Trump made a high-volume appeal to ramp up oil production. His clear message: keep energy prices low and forestall any advantage to adversaries. He posted emphatically on his social platform, “To the Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!! EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY.”
Trump’s declaration came as the White House escalated warnings to Iran against retaliating by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas flows daily. The Department of Energy Secretary Chris Wright quickly affirmed progress, stating, “We’re on it!” Yet it remains unclear how much immediate impact the DOE can have, given that U.S. drilling was already at record levels during the recent administration.
Labeling the current moment an energy emergency, Trump also hinted at possible use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if crude supplies are significantly disrupted. That proposal marks a sharp departure from his previous criticism of government withdrawals during the Biden administration’s Russia and Ukraine response. At present, Brent crude briefly touched a five month high before retreating to around 76 dollars and 10 cents per barrel as shipping continued uninterrupted through Hormuz.
Blanket Warnings Meet Geopolitical Retaliation
By the time Trump issued his call to boost production, Iran had already launched missile strikes targeting U.S. forces. An attack at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base marked Iran’s first direct retaliation following U.S. hits on nuclear facilities. Another strike reportedly targeted the Ain al Assad base in Iraq, according to an anonymous Iraqi security source. No one has claimed responsibility for the latter.
These missile launches appear more measured than wholesale escalation. Qatar confirmed there were no casualties, and the Pentagon along with U.S. officials closely monitored threats at both bases. Meanwhile, U.S. embassies and military installations throughout the region were placed on heightened alert, with emergency evacuation flights dispatched from Lebanon and Israel. The State Department also issued a worldwide use caution advisory for Americans abroad.
Oil Markets Shift With Each Signal
Oil futures responded rapidly to the escalating geopolitical drama. After climbing roughly four percent on the first trading session following the strikes, prices soon swung erratically between modest gains and losses. That suggests traders are torn between concern over supply disruption and confidence in ongoing global production and shipments.
Despite that volatility, analysts caution it may only be the beginning. According to major banks like Goldman Sachs, if Iran seriously pursues a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent could temporarily soar to 110 to 120 dollars per barrel. Other traders believe the price movements may stabilize unless a direct supply choke point emerges.
The Strait of Hormuz Threat Looms
Iran’s parliament recently approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, though final approval by their security council is still pending. The route handles approximately a fifth of all daily oil and gas shipments, making it one of the world’s most consequential chokepoints. If fully blocked, the global ripple effect would drive prices sharply upward and weigh heavily on inflation and consumer costs worldwide.
But few analysts believe Iran will fully shut the route. Economic interdependence, especially its reliance on Chinese oil purchases, likely makes a total blockade self-defeating. Instead, experts suggest Iran may choose more targeted tactics, including periodic harassment of tanker traffic or missile threats, to make its point without triggering a global economic backlash.
Balancing Production and Policy
Trump’s call for increased output comes with challenges. While U.S. producers have significant capacity, the rig count has already surged and further growth takes time. Lowering prices also relies on global coordination. OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may be reluctant to expand production too aggressively.
Nonetheless, the White House’s public stance could build momentum toward an expanded energy response. The possibility of tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve looms, though more supplies from the U.S. in the short term would be limited. Yet voices calling for both smarter diplomacy and stronger domestic energy policy will almost certainly be heard louder in the coming days.
A Fractured Message on Iran and Regime Change
Trump’s broader rhetoric adds layers of complexity. He also questioned whether the current Iranian regime “can MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN,” calling into question the political future of Tehran. His spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said it is not politically correct to frame this as regime change, even as President Trump left open the question of what comes next. This signals a more confrontational approach, one that mixes energy strategy with political messaging.
Leavitt emphasized the administration’s posture remains unchanged, with a focus on both military readiness and diplomatic restraint. Yet conflicting signals on whether the objective is regime change or containment complicate the international response.
Moving forward, the DOE and oil industry stakeholders will assess what can be done short term, including whether to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or offer incentives to U.S. producers. Meanwhile, trading desks around the world will continue monitoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, analyzing missile threats, tanker disruptions, and Iran’s political signals.
On the diplomatic front, the White House is working with allies to reinforce the importance of keeping Hormuz open. But the pathway ahead remains delicate. A full scale naval deployment or direct confrontation would carry steep costs, politically and economically.
For now, markets are in a holding pattern, caught between rising geopolitical tension and simmering economic pragmatism. What happens next depends on whether Iran pursues symbolic pressure, such as pipeline harassment, or escalates to physical disruption. Every signal will echo through oil futures, inflation forecasts, and Middle East stability.
