World Oil Demand Continues to Exceed Expectations

World oil demand continues to exceed expectations and this years surge will take the numbers higher to 102 million barrels per day.

“We have slightly revised up our 2023 growth forecast to 2.4 million barrels per day, as U.S. deliveries proved more resilient than indicated by preliminary data and Chinese oil demand in September set another all-time high above 17 million barrels per day, fueled by a booming petrochemical sector,” the IEA noted in its November OMR.

MINERAL RIGHTS,“Those gains have come to the detriment of petrochemical producers elsewhere, most notably in Europe and advanced economies in Asia and Oceania. Indeed, the two regions saw 3Q23 oil demand slump by a combined 560,000 barrels per day year on year,” the IEA added in the report.

“This year’s surge will take world oil demand to 102 million barrels per day before growth eases to 930,000 barrels per day in 2024 as the last phase of the pandemic economic rebound dissipates and as advancing energy efficiency gains, expanding electric vehicle fleets and structural factors reassert themselves,” the IEA continued.

“Despite growth that is almost two-thirds lower than this year’s increase, global oil demand is set to rise to a record annual high of 102.9 million barrels per day in 2024,” the organization went on to state.

In its previous OMR, which was released in October, the IEA outlined that evidence of demand destruction was appearing “with preliminary September data showing that U.S. gasoline consumption fell to two-decade lows”.

The IEA added in that report that “buoyant demand growth in China, India, and Brazil, nevertheless underpins an increase of 2.3 million barrels per day to 101.9 million barrels per day in 2023, of which China accounts for 77 percent”.

In its October OMR, the IEA projected that demand growth would slow to 900,000 barrels per day in 2024, “as efficiency gains and a deteriorating economic climate weigh on oil use”.

The IEA noted in its September OMR that world oil demand “remains on track to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to 101.8 million barrels per day, led by resurgent Chinese consumption, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks”.

“In 2024, naphtha and LPG/ethane, especially in China, will dominate an overall increase of a more modest 990,000 barrels per day, to 102.8 million barrels per day, reflecting below-trend GDP growth and a structural decline in road transport fuel use in major markets,” the IEA stated in that report.

In its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in November, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that total world consumption would come in at 101.04 million barrels per day this year and 102.44 million barrels per day in 2024.

The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in October, projected that total world consumption would be 100.92 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.24 million barrels per day in 2024. In its September STEO, the EIA forecast that total world consumption would be 100.97 million barrels per day this year and 102.33 million barrels per day next year.

Total world consumption was 99.16 million barrels per day in 2022, the EIA’s latest STEO highlighted.

According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) statistical review of world energy, which was released earlier this year, total oil liquids consumption was 100.255 million barrels per day in 2022. This figure increased 3.2 percent year on year, the review highlighted.

Total oil liquids consumption has grown one percent annually from 2012 to 2022, according to the review, which highlighted that this demand stood at 90.625 million barrels per day back in 2012.

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