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• Here’s what Italy’s elections will mean for bonds, the euro and banks
  As if Europe hasn’t got enough on its plate — war in the East, rampant inflation and an energy crisis...
  As if Europe hasn’t got enough on its plate — war in the East, rampant inflation and an energy crisis — now Sunday’s general elections in Italy is poised to deliver a far-right coalition led by Giorgia Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy party has fascist roots, a populist fiscal policy and deep Euro-skepticism.
  
  So what would a Meloni government mean for markets, both within Italy and beyond? Here are some things to consider.
  
  Watch the spread. The yield spread between the benchmark Italian 10-year government bond (BTP Italia) TMBMKIT-10Y, 4.353% and the German equivalent (Bund) TMBMKDE-10Y, 2.024% is the most closely followed gauge of how investors view Italy’s prospects.
  
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• Germany Secures Just One Tanker of Gas During Scholz’s Gulf Tour
  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz secured just one shipment of liquefied...
  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz secured just one shipment of liquefied natural gas from the United Arab Emirates, with a non-binding agreement for more, as Europe’s biggest economy struggles to replace Russian supplies.
  
  The cargo -- 137,000 cubic meters -- will be delivered by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. to German utility RWE AG by early 2023. ADNOC also signed a memorandum of understanding to make more deliveries next year. An ensuing trip to Qatar didn’t immediately yield any more deals.
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• Where will Ian make landfall after intensifying in the Gulf? ‘Significant uncertainty.’
  Tropical Storm Ian likely will rapidly intensify into a major hurricane once the storm moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico, but weather officials on Sunday can’t say with confidence where landfall will be in the U.S.
  
  “Once the cyclone emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the spread in the track guidance increases at days 3-5,” the National Hurricane Center in Miami said at 10 a.m. CST. “There is still significant uncertainty in the long-range track forecast of Ian, and future adjustments to this portion of the forecast will likely be required.”
  
  Ian is expected to make a turn northwest later Sunday as the tropical storm passes southwest of Jamaica, then it will begin moving in a north-northwestern motion. The center of Ian is expected to be west of the Cayman Islands on Monday and “near or over western Cuba by early Tuesday,” the NHC said.  A hurricane warning is in effect for Western Cuba.
  
  
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• Pump Prices in US Soar as Supply Cracks Outweigh Weak Demand
  (Bloomberg) The US is running low on gasoline on the West Coast and in the Midwest, where prices are...
  (Bloomberg) The US is running low on gasoline on the West Coast and in the Midwest, where prices are surging on the street, defying falling futures markets.
  
  Wholesale fuel prices in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Portland have all reached record highs this week as a spate of unplanned refinery shutdowns compounded scheduled maintenance, at a time when seasonal stockpiles are already at their lowest level in 14 years.
  
  A similar dynamic is playing out in the Midwest, where a deadly refinery fire sent Chicago wholesale gasoline surging, matching its most expensive level ever relative to futures. Meanwhile, pump prices are rising again in many states, as is the national average, according to auto club AAA.
  
  Soaring fuel prices on the ground are in sharp contrast to what’s playing out in the futures markets for both oil and gasoline, where traders are focused on a worsening global economic outlook. The signs of a slowing economy -- from weak fuel demand to collapsing freight markets -- are hard to ignore, not to mention the spate of additional interest rate hikes this week designed to rein in inflation that will no doubt also stunt growth. For the consumer already weighed down by historic costs, rising pump prices are another burden they must bear.
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• Continental Resources: Projected To Generate Close To $2 Billion In 2H 2022 Cash Flow Now
  Continental is unhedged on oil, so its near-term cash flow is fully affected by swings in oil prices. ...
  Continental is unhedged on oil, so its near-term cash flow is fully affected by swings in oil prices.  It is still projected to generate close to $2 billion in 2H 2022 cash flow before dividends.
  
  The reduction in near-term cash flow projections does bring Continental's estimated value down to the mid-$70s, closer to Hamm's $70 offer.
  
  Continental is unhedged on crude oil (except for NYMEX roll swaps). It does have the majority of its 2H 2022 natural gas production hedged, as well as around 43% of its 2023 natural gas production and 31% of its 2024 natural gas production hedged (based on 2H 2022 production levels at least).
  
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