UBS argues, the odds of said recession have increased dramatically this summer.
The Swiss bank said in a note to clients this week that macroeconomic data points to a 60% chance the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months. That's up from 40% at the beginning of the summer.
Three factors are pointing the bank toward this prediction: macro data, the US treasury yield curve, and credit market data. The good news for now is that the bank's models are not pointing to a full recession.
U.S. stocks extend losing streak to fourth day, ending month down over 4%
U.S. stocks finished in the red for a fourth straight day on Wednesday as all three benchmarks...
U.S. stocks finished in the red for a fourth straight day on Wednesday as all three benchmarks recorded a loss for the month of August after finishing higher in July. For the Nasdaq, the 6.1% loss over the last four sessions was its biggest four-day drop since late June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.88% retreated 280.44 points, or 0.9%, to 31,510.43, finishing August down 3.9%. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.78% shed 31.16 points, or 0.8%, to 3,955.00, bringing its loss for the month to 4.2%. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.56% fell 66.93 points, or 0.6%, to 11,816.20, a monthly drop of 4.6%. Stocks have been falling since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell declared on Friday that the Fed would continue with its policy tightening even if it caused economic pain for businesses and households.
Oil Prices Climb Higher On Larger Than Expected Crude Draw
Crude oil prices rose slightly today after the Energy Information Administration ...
Crude oil prices rose slightly today after the Energy Information Administration reported an inventory draw of 3.3 million barrels for the week to August 26. At 418.3 million barrels, inventories are 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of the year.
The number for the week to August 26 compared with a draw of 3.3 million barrels for the previous week.
The picture in fuels was mixed. In gasoline, the EIA reported an inventory decline of 1.2 million barrels for the week to August 26. This compared with a decline of 4.6 million barrels for the previous week.
Gasoline production last week averaged 9.8 million barrels daily, compared with 9.4 million bpd for the previous week.
Gazprom Says it Will Halt Gas Supplies to France’s Engie
Russia’s Gazprom said on Aug. 30 it would fully suspend gas deliveries to major European utility...
Russia’s Gazprom said on Aug. 30 it would fully suspend gas deliveries to major European utility Engie from Sept. 1 in a dispute over contracts, a move which will deepen concerns about Europe’s winter energy supply.
Europe is already on notice that Gazprom will shut off the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 for maintenance, and there is some concern that Moscow, which has cut the pipeline's supply to just 20% of capacity, may step up pressure by delaying the restart.
In a statement, Gazprom said Engie had not paid in full for July deliveries of gas.
“In this regard, Gazprom Export notified Engie of the complete suspension of gas supplies starting from Sept. 1, 2022, until the moment it receives full payment for the gas it has supplied,” it said.
The energy sector is poised for a lower start amid more losses...
The energy sector is poised for a lower start amid more losses in crude futures. U.S stocks are set to open slightly higher, though gains moderated after private payrolls for August grew by just 132,000 for the month, a deceleration from the 270,000 gain in July, ADP said in its monthly payroll report.
WTI and Brent crude oil futures are extending yesterday’s sell-off as the market weighs in weaker demand prospects, political unrest in key OPEC+ producers and the possibility of a nuclear deal being announced with Iran. OPEC’s Joint Technical Committee is meeting this morning, with headlines noting the group is increasing its expectations for a 2022 surplus build, explaining that rising energy costs may lead to less demand. Additionally, China's factory activity extended declines in August as new COVID infections and the worst heatwaves in decades weighed in on production. Despite experiencing weaker growth, some of China's biggest cities from Shenzhen to Dalian are imposing lockdowns and business closures to curb COVID-19 outbreaks. However, the API report showed gasoline inventories fell by about 3.4 million barrels, while distillate stocks, which include diesel and jet fuel, fell by about 1.7 million barrels.
Natural gas futures are down in early trading as data suggest inventories are rising. Gazprom halted natural gas flows through Europe's key supply route on Wednesday as the economic battle intensified between Moscow and Brussels.
