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(Reuters) - Front-month U.S. crude oil futures ended Monday's trading at their smallest premium since January 2024 over the seventh-month contract, as OPEC+ ramps up supply while seasonal refinery maintenance in the U.S. pressures demand for prompt barrels.
Narrowing backwardation —the market term for immediate deliveries fetching a premium over later deliveries —suggests investors are making less money selling oil in the spot market because near-term supply is perceived as ample.
A reversal of the spread from a premium to a discount would put U.S. oil futures in a contango for the first time since last January.
WTI crude futures for November delivery settled at $59.49 per barrel on Monday, while the May 2026 contract settled at $59.02 per barrel, creating a 47-cent premium for prompt barrels, the narrowest since January 16 last year.
"This narrowing is indicative of excess supplies in the near term, and then concerns that when demand increases in the future, supplies will get tighter again," said Andrew Lipow, president of consultancy Lipow Oil Associates.
"We are seeing increased supply from OPEC+, which, combined with reports of more oil in floating storage, is putting pressure on the front end of the curve, as well as seasonal refinery maintenance in the U.S.," Lipow added.
U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Monday, rebounding from Friday's selloff, after President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric around trade tensions with China.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 587.98 points or 1.3% to end at 46,067.58, snapping a five-day losing streak, according to the Dow Jones Market Data. The index posted its largest one-day point and percentage gain since Sept. 11.
The S&P 500 rose 102.21 points or 1.6% to finish at 6,654.72. It was the index’s largest point and percentage gain since May 27.
The Nasdaq Composite climbed 490.18 points or 2.2% to close at 22,694.61. It was the index’s largest one-day point gain since May 12 and its largest one-day percentage gain since May 27.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite snapped back-to-back losses.
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