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• Inflation worries return after Red Sea shipping attacks
  Recent attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea are reviving broader concerns about another outbreak...
  Recent attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea are reviving broader concerns about another outbreak of inflation, particularly in Europe, and could threaten to undercut the financial market’s most important narrative of the new year.
  
  The narrative, which took off with the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot last week and continued to play out on Tuesday, is the idea that inflation will likely keep easing by enough to usher in a round of interest-rate cuts during 2024. Financial markets positioned for this immaculate disinflation scenario in several ways: Treasury yields finished mostly lower, traders clung to expectations for as many as five to seven quarter-point rate cuts next year in the U.S., and stocks closed higher again, with the S&P 500 SPX just shy of cracking a record set in January of 2022.
  
  “The Red Sea events, on balance, affect Europe more than the U.S., which is mostly insulated, more self-sufficient and produces its own energy. But if they last long enough, stretching into a three- to six-month timeline, the U.S. could be affected and it would have a domino effect on other things,” said Derek Tang, an economist at Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington.
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• Closing Oil & Gas Prices for Tuesday
  Benchmark U.S. crude oil for...

  Benchmark U.S. crude oil for January delivery rose 97 cents to $73.44 per barrel Tuesday. Brent crude for February delivery rose $1.28 to $79.23 per barrel.

  
  

  Wholesale gasoline for January delivery rose 4 cents to $2.20 a gallon. January heating oil rose 5 cents to $2.72 a gallon. January natural gas fell 1 cent to $2.49 per 1,000 cubic feet.

  
  
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• Closing Market Update for Tuesday
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average® (DJI)...

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average® (DJI) notched a record-high close for the fifth straight day Tuesday, and the S&P 500® index (SPX) edged even closer to an all-time high as the market's holiday rally continued to keep its legs, fueled by the Federal Reserve's apparent policy "pivot" and optimism the economy can pull off a "soft landing."

  
  

  Tuesday produced another day of broad gains, with most major market sectors extending a rally sparked by last week's Fed policy meeting, at which the central bank scaled up its projection for rate cuts in 2024. Small-cap stocks continued to close a gap with larger counterparts as the Russell 2000® Index (RUT) jumped nearly 2% to a 16-month high.

  
  

  The S&P 500 ended within 28.19 points, or 0.6% of its record-closing high of 4,796.56, posted on January 3, 2022, the first trading day of that year. Here's where the major benchmarks ended:

  
  

  The S&P 500 index was up 27.81 points (0.6%) at 4,768.37; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 251.90 points (0.7%) at 37,557.92; the Nasdaq Composite® (COMP) was up 98.03 points (0.7%) at 15,003.22.

  
  The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) was down about 3 basis points at 3.924%.
  
  The Cboe® Volatility Index (VIX) was down 0.03 at 12.53.
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• ☕️ What Else Is Brewing Tuesday Morning
  US Steel is turning Japanese in a $14.1 billion deal....

  US Steel is turning Japanese in a $14.1 billion deal. US Steel, once the world’s largest company and a symbol of US manufacturing might that counts J.P. Morgan and Andrew Carnegie among its founders, has agreed to be bought by Japan’s Nippon Steel. The deal ends months of speculation over the 122-year-old steel company’s fate after it rebuffed a $7.3 billion offer from domestic rival Cleveland-Cliffs over the summer. Assuming regulators and US Steel’s shareholders sign off on the purchase, it would make Nippon the second-biggest steel company globally and give it a major presence in the US market, which uses a lot of steel, especially to make cars.

  
  

  Nikola's founder gets four years for fraud. Trevor Milton was sentenced to four years in prison yesterday after having been found guilty of defrauding investors in the electric vehicle company he founded. While that’s less than the Elizabeth Holmes-level, 11-year sentence prosecutors had pushed for, it’s more than the probation he requested. Nikola was briefly the third-most-valuable vehicle company in the US, but its value plunged when a short seller accused the company of lying about its tech. Prosecutors agreed and claimed Milton fibbed about the company’s progress, including in an infamous video that purported to show one of its trucks operational and moving when it was really just rolled down a hill.

  
  

  A volcano erupted on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula yesterday near a town that was evacuated last month after a series of earthquakes signaled an eruption was coming. The government said the volcanic activity was the most powerful the area had seen since a major disaster in the 1970s.

  
  An earthquake in northwestern China killed more than 100 people, state media said.
  
  A new Texas law will allow police to arrest migrants for unauthorized border crossings, setting up a future confrontation with the federal government over immigration.
  
  A powerful rainstorm along the East Coast knocked out power to more than 800,000 people at one point and caused flooding.
  
  
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• US Shale Oil Output Set for 3rd Monthly Drop in Jan
  The Energy Information Administration expects US oil...

  The Energy Information Administration expects US oil production from major US shale formations to decline for the third month in a row to 9.692 million barrels per day in January, even as Permian Basin output is projected to hit a record 5.986 million bpd.

  
  

  Additionally, shale gas production is set to fall to 99 Bcf/d in January, which would mark the fifth straight month of declines

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