U.S. Crude Hits a Record While Key Export Data Goes Dark
U.S. oil production hit another record in September,...
U.S. oil production hit another record in September, but the bigger story in this month’s Petroleum Supply Monthly is what isn’t in the report: actual export data. Because the U.S. Census Bureau couldn’t release September trade figures during a funding lapse, the EIA had no choice but to recycle August’s export numbers and paste them into September’s balance sheet. That one missing piece ripples through nearly everything analysts try to read from the monthly series — from product supplied to implied demand to net imports. In other words, September’s “demand” number is effectively a placeholder until Census provides new data.
The production side, at least, is real. U.S. crude output in September edged up by 44,000 bpd to 13.84 million bpd — a fresh high and yet another reminder that weak prices haven’t slowed the machine much. New Mexico set another record at 2.351 million bpd, and the Gulf of Mexico climbed to just under 2 million bpd, the strongest since before the pandemic. The longer-cycle offshore projects are now doing more of the heavy lifting as the Permian approaches its comfort ceiling.
Normally, the PSM would help sort out the noise from weekly data, but with exports frozen in amber, September’s disposition tables are something close to a shrug. Product supplied will look artificially subdued, adjustments will look bigger than they should, and net imports won’t tell you much of anything. EIA says it will republish the month once Census delivers the real figures.
It's the worst possible time for the EIA to be missing export data. The market is already obsessed with the oversupply narrative. From OPEC+ arguing about baselines, to JPMorgan warnings, from U.S. shale flattening but the Gulf filling the gap, to IEA glut forecasts. The demand picture simply isn't real. Analysts will have to wait another cycle for the number that matters most: how much of that record production actually left the country.
In its annual Winter Outlook, the American Gas Association...
In its annual Winter Outlook, the American Gas Association sees a continuation of last year’s “La Niña” weather pattern signaling a colder-than-average winter. But consumers aren’t expected to see higher heating costs. In fact, the association expects natural gas bills to be 8% lower than the higher prices seen several years ago.
That’s due, in part, to not only record demand, but record natural gas production, according to the AGA. There has also been a 16% increase in technically recoverable natural gas resources.
“Demand for natural gas has surged, and increased production, energy efficiency gains, and robust domestic storage have allowed the industry to keep pace, setting the stage for continued affordability and reliability for American consumers,” said Richard Meyer, AGA’s vice president of energy markets, analysis, and standards, in a statement.
Only one in 650 natural gas customers is expected to experience a planned or unplanned natural gas outage in any given year, according to the association.
Blasts rocked two Russian shadow fleet tankers before catching fire in the Black Sea near Turkey's Bosphorus Strait, Turkish authorities reported Friday.
Turkey's Directorate General of Maritime Affairs said the first tanker, the Gambian-flagged Kairos, caught fire approximately 28 miles off the coast of the country's Kocaeli province.
It blamed the fire on 'an external impact,' without providing details.
The 274-meter-long Kairos suffered an explosion in the Black Sea while en route from Egypt to Russia, Turkey's Transport Ministry added.
Within the hour, the maritime authority reported that a second tanker, Virat, was 'struck' while sailing in the Black Sea about 35 nautical miles off the Turkish coast. It did not provide further details.
Oil falls on drawn-out Ukraine peace talks, all eyes on upcoming OPEC+ meeting
Crude futures fell marginally on Friday as investors...
Crude futures fell marginally on Friday as investors considered oil's geopolitical risk premium amid drawn-out Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while keeping an eye on Sunday's OPEC+ meeting for clues about potential output changes.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures resumed trading after being frozen due to a system outage at exchange operator CME Group, blamed on a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres. Brent trades on the Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE.
Front-month Brent crude futures for January, which expire on Friday, settled down 14 cents, or 0.22%, at $63.20 a barrel. The more active February contract settled at $62.38, down 49 cents from Thursday's close.
WTI crude settled at $58.55 a barrel, down 10 cents, or 0.17%, from Wednesday's close. There was no settlement on Thursday due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Despite being up around 1% for the week, both contracts settled down for the fourth straight month, their longest losing streak since 2023, as expectations for higher global supply weighed on prices.
The strength of fuel-refining profit margins has supported crude demand in some markets, but the bearish impact of an expected oil surplus is pressuring prices, said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.
Trump halts migration from all third world countries
President Donald Trump will 'permanently...
President Donald Trump will 'permanently pause migration' from third-world countries and ordered a green card audit of 19 nations after the Washington, DC, terror attack that left a National Guard soldier dead.
Trump blasted former president Joe Biden for letting unvetted migrants stream into America - claiming he allowed the Afghan shooting suspect into the US during the disastrous 2021 withdrawal.
'I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countriesto allow the US system to fully recover,' he said in a Truth Social post Thursday night.
Trump also vowed to end all federal benefits for noncitizens, denaturalize migrants who undermine the US, and deport any foreign nationals deemed a security risk or 'non-compatible with Western Civilization'.
'Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation,' he wrote in the Truth Social post.
