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President Donald Trump is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, warning of “very severe consequences” if a Ukraine peace deal is not reached. The summit carries potential implications for global oil markets, which have remained sensitive to shifts in Russian supply since the invasion of Ukraine over three years ago.
Analysts see two broad scenarios. A constructive agreement with partial sanctions relief for Russian oil exports could increase supply expectations and drive crude prices lower, according to Capital.com’s Daniela Sabin Hathorn. Conversely, a breakdown in talks could trigger tighter U.S. and European sanctions, potentially targeting Russia’s shadow fleet or countries trading with Russia, leading to a price rally. ClearView Energy Partners’ Kevin Book noted significant barriers to restoring Russian energy flows, including multiple EU sanctions packages.
Trump framed the meeting as a precursor to a potential follow-up summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, contingent on satisfactory outcomes. While geopolitical risk can influence oil prices, Book emphasized that markets remain skeptical, requiring substantial political momentum or tangible supply shifts for a lasting impact, given OPEC+’s contributions to current supply levels.
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